Venezuela's Socialist Dictatorship Finally Ending?

This article is a Venezuelan woman's reflection on living through over a decade of crushing dictatorship, and an expression of how the Venezuelan's finally have the first rays of hope for legitimate government.
Venezuela’s Very Normal Revolution

Guaido's taking the first steps in the right direction to take oil out of strict government control and allow private oil companies to come in and help them rebuild their deteriorated and neglected oil infrastructure.
Venezuela: Juan Guaido will open up oil deals to foreign private companies, opposition leader's US envoy says

 

Rondon missed one main point. Venezuela crumbled when Chavez performed a hostile takeover of private businesses and private means of food production and put everything under government control.

But yes, I've seen similarities between Trump, Ocasio-Cortez, and Bernie Sanders in being experts at populist rhetoric. So certainly Chavez was a very talented populist propagandist with his "Take from the rich and give to all the people" Socialist platform. Maduro the bus driver...eh...not so talented at communicating a convincing spiel.

 

Guaido is only there as the interim president. His job is to reset Venezuela's constitution to what it was when they had separate branches. Maduro trashed the country's constitution, wrote his own constitution, and filled positions with his own picks. Guaido is to enable the country to schedule and elect a new legitimate President as soon as he can.

 

Food fight.

Maduro says he will not allow the pallets of food and medical supplies to enter the country. Humanitarian aid from several countries is waiting at the border in Colombia, Brazil and one unnamed location. He claims the food is just an excuse for military to come in and start a war.

Guaido is concerned that Maduro's military, if they do allow the aid to cross, will confiscate it and give it to the Chavista's (Maduro's supporters and loyalists - mostly military, police and government workers). The food may not get to the poor if it is allowed into the country.

Venezuela's Guaido challenging Maduro through humanitarian aid

 

Food Fight Continuing

Maduro sets up blockades to prevent entry of humanitarian aid.
Pompeo says, "Don't block humanitarian aid."
U.N. says, "Aid should be allowed to the people who need it. Don't make aid political."

Venezuela military sets up blockade on bridge to stop aid from Colombia

Pompeo demands that Venezuela let in US aid

U.N. warns against politicizing humanitarian aid in Venezuela | Reuters

 

Fight for control of CITGO...

Guaido will be naming a new CEO and board of directors for CITGO this week. CITGO is the Venezuelan-government-owned oil refinery business in the US with refineries in Houston, Louisiana, and Illinois. They ship and sell gasoline through about 6,000 US gas stations. Russia controls 49% as collateral against debt.

The US will be recognizing the new board, selected by Guaido. Funds from the company will go to accounts of the new government, squeezing Maduro out of a significant amount of cash.

The Venezuela Maduro regime is expected to sue over the takeover.

Venezuela opposition will name new Citgo board this week - WSJ

 

The first convoy of US Aid arrived at the storage warehouse in Columbia today.

Maduro calls humanitarian aid a "show":
“The so-called ‘humanitarian aid’ operation is a show, a cheap show, a bad show,” Maduro said in interview with Mexican newspaper La Jornada published on Thursday. “You can be sure that it won’t disturb Venezuela.”

Looks like it's going to be up to the Venezuelan military to flip loyalty from the Maduro regime to the starving Venezuelans and help get the aid into the country.

Venezuela aid trucks arrive in Colombia as EU calls for dialogue | Reuters

 

Or it is already turning into a new Cold War.

Russia and China have large stakes in this Venezuelan government outcome.

Maduro borrowed tens of billions of dollars each from Russia and China, pocketed the money for himself and his loyalists, and then didn't pay back China. He welched on payments to China so is shipping them "free" oil to repay debt. He's making minimum payments to Russia, since they would assassinate him if he didn't, although those payments may be "free" gold bars since Russia doesn't need oil.

Anyway, Venezuela might be the one to put Russia and China in financial pain if the new government declares that any loans or deals made under an illegitimate President Maduro are null and void.

Best if the US rightly says that those loans are strictly between those two countries and Venezuela. Not our business.

 

Guaido isn't ruling out authorizing US intervention to push Maduro out of office. I hate to read this, and hope that it's a very last resort.

You'd think that cutting of Maduro's cash flow with the oil sanctions would be enough. If he has no cash, he can't pay his military. If they don't get paid, they should quickly switch loyalties and back the peaceful government transition. On the other hand, if Russia/China/Cuba funds him to keep him propped up then...

Meanwhile, Maduro continues to say there is no crisis in Venezuela and won't allow the humanitarian aid into the country.

Venezuela's Guaido won't rule out authorizing US intervention

 

Trying to avoid frozen accounts and keep the money, Maduro has opened Russian bank accounts and is asking customers to reroute payments to the new accounts in either US dollars or Euros (he has made Venezuelan currency completely worthless).
Venezuela shifts oil ventures' accounts to Russian bank - document, sources

Also scrambling to replace lost US business (at 500 million barrels/day), the regime's oil minister says they plan to double oil "sales" to India. Venezuela purchases medicines among imports from India, so it's hoping to barter off it's oil in exchange for import products.
Venezuela's PDVSA seeks to barter its oil with India | Reuters

Meanwhile, interim President Guaido has lined up 100,000 volunteers who he hopes the military will allow to accept and distribute the humanitarian aid to those who are most in need. The next street protests are scheduled for tomorrow.
Venezuela opposition plans aid hub in Brazil, mobilizes volunteers

 

Food fight showdown date set for Feb 23th, getting the humanitarian aid into the country. I don't know how Guaido's going to pull it off, but I sure hope he does.

Showdown looms as Venezuela's Guaido sets aid entry date

 

The US has air lifted an additional 200 tons of humanitarian aid to the Colombian border with Venezuela. It's expected to arrive today. Still no word on how it can get past Maduro's military with Maduro still saying that the country does not need any help.

The US also placed sanctions on more Venezuelan individuals yesterday, mainly petroleum industry people.

U.S. raises pressure on Maduro via sanctions, aid airlift

The IMF is predicting a fairly quick end of Maduro's dictatorial reign now that sanctions have been placed on their oil trade. The IMF Fund is preparing to help with a massive financial aid package that will be required to help get the country back on its feet.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

Trump spoke from Miami yesterday to an audience mostly Venezuelan and Cuban immigrants, promising that aid is coming to Venezuela soon and imploring Maduro's supporters to side with the people. He also talked about the dangers of socialism and vowed again that the US will never be a socialist country.

Meanwhile Guaido has requested 1 million citizen volunteers to help receive and distribute the food and medical humanitarian aid to the people who need it most (9 out of 10 people there are living in poverty). Saturday is the day Guaido promised to get the aid into the country.

Yesterday, Venezuela's state internet provider CANTV has blocked a webpage where volunteers sign up to answer National Assembly president Juan Guaido's call to help bring in desperately needed humanitarian aid.