Corona Virus Now Spreading

denice

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What it really comes down to is we don't know. There is a lot of modeling being done but modeling is only as good as the data used, the old garbage in garbage out. As more and more data is available the modeling will become better. Modeling is an important tool used by epidemiologists and work on it certainly needs to continue but for now it isn't something that the general public should take as absolute truth. It will take time for that modeling to be accurate.
 

denice

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As far as mortality rate goes a lot depends on how much testing is being done. If a country is doing a lot of testing that will catch mild and asymptomatic cases that will bring the mortality rate down. If a country is primarily only testing people with symptoms that were bad enough to bring them into the medical system then the death rate will be abnormally high.

To get really good statistics at some point they would need to do titer tests for antibodies. That would catch people who were exposed and recovered with little to know symptoms. A lot of data needs to be part of modeling to get a correct model and have a handle on this virus for future reference.
 
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molly92

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As far as mortality rate goes a lot depends on how much testing is being done. If a country is doing a lot of testing that will catch mild and asymptomatic cases that will bring the mortality rate down. If a country is primarily only testing people with symptoms that were bad enough to bring them into the medical system then the death rate will be abnormally high.

To get really good statistics at some point they would need to do titer tests for antibodies. That would catch people who were exposed and recovered with little to know symptoms. A lot of data needs to be part of modeling to get a correct model and have a handle on this virus for future reference.
Yes. CFR (case fatality rate) can also be off (in both directions) because
  • Not enough people with the virus and severe complications are being tested (because it wouldn't change their care) and their deaths are not being counted as COVID-19 deaths.
  • There is always a lag in number of deaths. People who currently have the virus who have not died yet but will are still being counted in the "alive" category.
  • Not all populations are demographically equal. Some countries have higher or lower average ages. Some countries have more smokers or non-smokers, etc.
  • In places with overwhelmed or insufficient healthcare, some people who could have been saved are not, so in these places the CFR is higher not because the virus is worse, but because care is worse.
 

denice

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'A game changer': FDA authorizes Abbott Labs' portable, 5-minute coronavirus test the size of a toaster

The FDA has approved another fast test that will ship next week. This one gives results in 5 minutes and the machine is the size of a toaster oven. It is made for use in urgent care facilities. Another large batch test has shipped to hospitals that gives results in 45 minutes. The U.S. is slow with getting testing going but we seem to be coming up with more reliable and faster testing. That could certainly help globally in the future once production gets ramped up.

I haven't been able to give blood for a number of years. People who spent six months or more in certain parts of Europe during certain years can't give blood because of Mad Cow disease. I was stationed in a part of Europe during that time frame. The theory is that most people are immune to it but they could be carrying it. Their blood could be given to someone who isn't immune.
 

Katie M

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I haven't been able to give blood for a number of years. People who spent six months or more in certain parts of Europe during certain years can't give blood because of Mad Cow disease. I was stationed in a part of Europe during that time frame. The theory is that most people are immune to it but they could be carrying it. Their blood could be given to someone who isn't immune.
Yeah, my family was stationed in Europe in that time frame too. I try to encourage people to donate blood because I know there are those who can't, myself included.
 

Ceracera

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Articles talking about how the old and frail wouldve died anyway so they shouldnt be counted are also not taking into account the number of people who couldve lived but died. A lot of people who mightve gotten extra years wont now because their cancer treatments or organ transplants are now on hold. Im also appalled medical researchers are saying stuff like... they wouldve died the following year. How do you conclude if someone wouldve died anyway?

a lot of chinese hospitals kicked out ill patients to make room for covid patients. Italy did it too. Wouldnt be surprised if the same happens elsewhere.

And the flu is not worse if you keep in mind diseases are exponential.

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A south korean doctor explaining how the virus works, what research has shown so far and what you can do: south korea is handling this the best so far, so its worth listening to what theyre doing over there. The interview is pretty detailed.

Why so few Covid-19 infections in Singapore’s health workers?
How Singapore managed to reduce staff infection by compartmentalizing them


A 90-year-old great great grandmother from Beaumont beats coronavirus: A 90-year-old great great grandmother from Beaumont beats coronavirus
 
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denice

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This particular Coronavirus is worse then the seasonal flu. There are Coronaviruses that are endemic to humans and are the cause of about 20 percent of colds. This Coronavirus is new to humans so we had no built up immunity to it and that was a major factor in making it so lethal. The same thing could happen with a new flu which would be a yet or not in modern history seen variation that is very close to bird flu. Some of the worst diseases present and past are viruses. Ebola and HIV are viruses. Smallpox was a virus which we seem to have been successful in ridding the world of with vaccination. Not all viruses are stable enough to be wiped out with vaccination. I don't know where this one will end up. Hopefully we as a species will accommodate it. We will build up immunity, it will mutate over time and it will become one of the Coronaviruses that cause the common cold.
 

terestrife

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How long will people keep hoarding? Had to arrive at my local bjs wholesale store 30.mins before opening. there's a huge line to get in. I've been avoiding stores hoping the initial craze would die down, but it's not. Why do people need so much stuff?

Sorry for ranting, but with all the money these grocery stores are banking right now, there's no excuse not to have shelves stocked.

Just frustrating, and even pet owners are hoarding stuff so other pets are affected. Im just disgusted by people right now.

Articles talking about how the old and frail wouldve died anyway so they shouldnt be counted are also not taking into account the number of people who couldve lived but died. A lot of people who mightve gotten extra years wont now because their cancer treatments or organ transplants are now on hold. Im also appalled medical researchers are saying stuff like... they wouldve died the following year. How do you conclude if someone wouldve died anyway?
My old boss was given a year to live because of his cancer. He's still alive after 2 years. Thankfully because he has a teenage son. Im scared they'll stop his treatments. He is 43 years old.
 

NY cat man

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How long will people keep hoarding? Had to arrive at my local bjs wholesale store 30.mins before opening. there's a huge line to get in. I've been avoiding stores hoping the initial craze would die down, but it's not. Why do people need so much stuff?

Sorry for ranting, but with all the money these grocery stores are banking right now, there's no excuse not to have shelves stocked.

Just frustrating, and even pet owners are hoarding stuff so other pets are affected. Im just disgusted by people right now.



My old boss was given a year to live because of his cancer. He's still alive after 2 years. Thankfully because he has a teenage son. Im scared they'll stop his treatments. He is 43 years old.
Oftentimes, it isn't the stores' fault, because if they can't get stuff from their suppliers, they can't put it on their shelves, and if the producers can't physically crank stuff out any faster, then the wholesalers go wanting as well. The stores can't make any money if they don't have stuff to sell- and I'm talking brick-and-mortar stores, not those people charging outrageous prices on the internet.
 

denice

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The hoarding seemed to have died down here. I went yesterday morning and the number of people in the store was back to normal. They had plenty of fresh meat, bread, milk and frozen veggies. The limits on purchase signs were down. The only thing still stripped and still had a purchase limit sign was the disinfectant cleaners. The toilet paper and paper towels were still a little skimpy but not completely gone.
 

Jem

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Sorry for ranting, but with all the money these grocery stores are banking right now, there's no excuse not to have shelves stocked.
In most cases, when it comes to TP, wipes and sanitizer, it's because suppliers can't keep up, not because people are "still" hoarding.
I just read an article that says that "most" stores are only getting about 25% of their orders of the high demand products. It all started because of hoarding, but it's continuing because of production limitations and suppliers.
 

donutte

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Oftentimes, it isn't the stores' fault, because if they can't get stuff from their suppliers, they can't put it on their shelves, and if the producers can't physically crank stuff out any faster, then the wholesalers go wanting as well. The stores can't make any money if they don't have stuff to sell- and I'm talking brick-and-mortar stores, not those people charging outrageous prices on the internet.
That is true, but there are also some stores who have yet to implement limits on things. Because people get ridiculous if they don't have a full cart, if they can't hoard one thing they'll hoard another. So they need to put limits on everything at this point. Yes, because of a few stupid people. Limits are not a bad thing though. If you're THAT desperate, go back in later and get more. That's what people do during big sales that have limits.

But do not - DO NOT - bring you're entire gosh darn family to the store. That's just stupid. Especially if your five kids each have their own cart right behind you. Really? I hear about that at the Woodman's, which is so stupid.

The shortages on some items just makes me wonder what the heck people are thinking. Socks? People are hoarding socks now??
 

donutte

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I'm listening to the governor of Nebraska talk. It sounds like his plan is to take actions based on how bad things get. In other words, things have to get bad before taking a specific action.

Does no one understand the concept of being proactive??? He's in a great position to keep things from getting bad there. Once it gets bad, it's like trying to stop a freight train.
 

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So the cherry blossoms started blooming this week. I went out for a walk and the park was packed full of people. Lots of kids running around with each other unsupervised. I saw more adults not wearing masks. BUt like, we still have 100 cases a day. I don't really understand why everyone is being so lax. I know I went out and walked around, but I definitely wasn't having a picnic with more than 4 friends sitting together and sharing food on a tiny mat. -__- I am more and more worried as everyone becomes less and less aware. I guess they just hear in the news how well the country is doing and just assume that nothing bad can happen to them. -____-

PS, I talked to my parents and brother yesterday (in MN) and they said that they were able to find supplies at convenience stores. Like, my mom couldn't find flour at the grocery store or Walmart, but she found it at the nearby gas station. My brother also found toilet paper at a gas station. If you haven't taken a look at the convenience stores around you, I'd suggest it!
 

denice

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I'm listening to the governor of Nebraska talk. It sounds like his plan is to take actions based on how bad things get. In other words, things have to get bad before taking a specific action.

Does no one understand the concept of being proactive??? He's in a great position to keep things from getting bad there. Once it gets bad, it's like trying to stop a freight train.
The Governor of Ohio tweeted that this virus is everywhere. Even if an area thinks they don't have it, they do they just don't know it yet.
 

EmersonandEvie

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I was thrilled when we went to Kroger on Friday and I found white vinegar and instant grits! They also had hand soap and their area for cleaners looked better. No bleach/rubbing alcohol/hydrogen peroxide, though.
 
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