Corona Virus Now Spreading

glittercat

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To think of new viral pathogens is scary, yes. But this is certainly not the only one by miles to jump the species barrier. Swine flu, avian flu, Ebola, salmonella, anthrax, TB, lassa, rabies, plague, zika are all prime examples of zoonotic transmission. There are more...

(I am utterly fascinated by epidemiology and viruses).

But looking at this overall, it may be worth bearing in mind the media also is using headlines to pull people in and although it's absolutely necessary to know what's going on I (personally) don't think headlines screaming 'Killer Virus!' really do much to help. They just make people panicky and scared all the time. Look at the Ebola outbreak a couple of years ago : people were scared out of their minds and they lied about their travel etc. Normal human nature...

The mortality rates for the WN coronavirus (there are 7 strains of human coronavirus in the coronavridae family) are low, and they are in the cohort of patients who would be more likely than the general population to experience severe complications from normal seasonal flu and colds - they already have either long-term conditions or weakened immune systems or may be elderly and so on.

Around 98% of people with WN-CoNV19 will recover fully and not require any medical intervention.

For comparison purposes :

While the impact of flu varies, it places a substantial burden on the health of people in the United States each year. CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9.3 million – 49.0 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 960,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 79,000 deaths annually since 2010.

The incubation period for WN-CoNV19 is between 1-14 days. May also be a possibility that one of the reasons there are suddenly spikes in the numbers of confirmed cases, could be because people are panicking and presenting at hospitals etc when they may not need to do so.

(It has taken forever to write this as the cat keeps trying to knock the phone out of my hand, - I've been home more than 10 minutes and haven't fed them!!)

PS I don't mean to say we shouldn't worry at all or to belittle what's going on, but I just think being aware of things is useful. My worry would be something like Ebola as a worldwide outbreak. Now that would definitely be a zombie apocalypse scenario.
 
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Willowy

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My worry would be something like Ebola as a worldwide outbreak. Now that would definitely be a zombie apocalypse scenario.
Not necessarily. With proper sanitation and quarantine procedures, Ebola is not easily transmitted. Using proper containment procedures cuts WAY down on transmission rates even in primitive conditions. So Ebola isn't our apocalypse virus.

Not discounting the possibility of it mutating to become more easily transmitted though. . .:fear:

I just heard something saying that this year's flu is worse than the strain of coronavirus that's going around. I don't know what their numbers look like, but that seems plausible.
 

glittercat

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Not necessarily. With proper sanitation and quarantine procedures, Ebola is not easily transmitted. Using proper containment procedures cuts WAY down on transmission rates even in primitive conditions. So Ebola isn't our apocalypse virus.

Not discounting the possibility of it mutating to become more easily transmitted though. . .:fear:
Yes; good points, I stand corrected. Actually the mortality rates for it would also depend on the strain and so on. Still a v nasty bug though.

As for the second comment re mutation that's definitely a shudder-worthy, scarily horrific thought. Eeeep. 😲😷
 
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Maria Bayote

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Margret

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The mortality rates for the WN coronavirus (there are 7 strains of human coronavirus in the coronavridae family) are low, and they are in the cohort of patients who would be more likely than the general population to experience severe complications from normal seasonal flu and colds - they already have either long-term conditions or weakened immune systems or may be elderly and so on.
My husband and I are both in our mid to late 60s. My husband is totally dependent on dialysis 3 times a week and has a pace maker. We're both diabetic. And we both get our flu shots every year.

We're among that "cohort of patients who would be more likely than the general population to experience severe complications from normal seasonal flu and colds," which is one reason we've both been vaccinated against pneumonia and we get a flu shot every year. The problem with this coronavirus is that there is no vaccination against it.

Are we panicking? No, of course not. However, we don't consider this to be a minor concern, either. We don't rate ourselves as "expendable," and we do rate ourselves as "vulnerable."

Margret
 

Mia6

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Around 98% of people with WN-CoNV19 will recover fully and not require any medical intervention.
Are you saying that some people will recover just by rest, hydration, something for the fever?
 

Margret

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But this is certainly not the only one by miles to jump the species barrier. Swine flu, avian flu, Ebola, salmonella, anthrax, TB, lassa, rabies, plague, zika are all prime examples of zoonotic transmission. There are more...
Certainly. This is nothing new. However, I can't think of any other virus I've heard of that readily jumps between warm and cold blooded species.

(It has taken forever to write this as the cat keeps trying to knock the phone out of my hand, - I've been home more than 10 minutes and haven't fed them!!)
Why does this sound so familiar? Oh, yes. It must be the cat who's staring at me accusingly and keeps trying to knock the computer off my lap.

My worry would be something like Ebola as a worldwide outbreak. Now that would definitely be a zombie apocalypse scenario.
Not necessarily. With proper sanitation and quarantine procedures, Ebola is not easily transmitted. Using proper containment procedures cuts WAY down on transmission rates even in primitive conditions. So Ebola isn't our apocalypse virus.

Not discounting the possibility of it mutating to become more easily transmitted though. . .:fear:
Which is why my nightmare scenario is a weaponized strain of ebola.

Margret
 

Margret

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Are you saying that some people will recover just by rest, hydration, something for the fever?
That's how I read it, and it's probably true. The problem is that if they knew this people who are sick would likely take this information, carry a water bottle, get some extra sleep and take some aspirin, and then go about their everyday business, ignoring the fact that some of the people they meet are especially vulnerable. It's hard to get people to voluntarily quarantine themselves when they don't feel horrible.

Margret
 
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Maria Bayote

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Are you saying that some people will recover just by rest, hydration, something for the fever?
It says on one article, and I quote:

The only treatment that can be given is putting the patient on a ventilator and ensuring enough oxygen supply reaches the lungs.

Coronavirus Outbreak: How dangerous is it? Signs, symptoms and treatments of the disease - Republic World


The problem with this when cases of viral pneumonia, antibiotics won't work anymore. There is NO drug treatment.
 

Tik cat's mum

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I live near a university and they said in the local paper that the university was monitoring what was happening in China, because they have high number of students who are visiting home. I am concerned someone will not say if they are ill. Like the woman that flew to France. I can't see airlines being able to know if anyone is infected. Let's keep our fingers crossed it doesn't get much worse.
 

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I agree that this is not a reason for hysteria and panic, but this IS something to be taken seriously. From my understanding of what I've pieced together from all the different info out there. The reason that this strain of coronavirus is scary is because...
1) it's new - unsure of how to treat properly.
2) it's airborn - easily transmittable
3) it has a long incubation period - wider risk of transmission
4) it's survives and can be transmitted in both cold and warm blooded animals - that's a hearty virus!
5) the mortality rate IF you develop complications (the pneumonia) is high.
6) after SARS (also a strain of coronavirus), who can blame people for being scared?!
7) If you get complications, it hits hard and fast making treatment very difficult.

We now have 2 confirmed cases in Toronto, Ontario, they are husband and wife. I'm not anywhere near there although I am in Ontario and thousands of people in my area travel there all the time. I know my risk is very low and overall I'm pretty healthy so even if I were to get it, I don't think my risk of complications is high. But I tell yeah, if someone came to my clinic, who admitted they were in China in the last couples weeks, I would probably reschedule their therapy. It would be just my luck...

Has anyone heard about one of the conspiracy theories on this outbreak?

So basically...the Chinese Government did this. Not sure if it was just a test (and they'll make a deadlier one later), to purposefully infect their people (political unrest and control) or to infect the global population....but,
A Chinese woman, her husband and team that were working in the only level 4 lab we have in Canada were "dismissed", after it was found out that "someone" was sending/smuggling coronavirus and ebloa to China. This was a couple of years ago.
The woman has ties to the lab in China, the same lab in which they were being sent to was the lab that is situated (if I remember correctly) only 20 miles from where they suspect this outbreak started.
Then there is also the "coincedence" that this outbreak happened before the busiest travel time for the Chinese.

I'm NOT saying I believe this, but it's always interesting and kinda fun to hear all the different conspiracies that people come up with. And I gotta say...this is a good one.
Then there's the fact that spies, espionage, government cover ups etc...have and do happen. So who knows?

Have you heard any conspiracies?

I am concerned someone will not say if they are ill. Like the woman that flew to France.
The man in Toronto who is a confirmed case, admitted that he had symptoms while he was on the plane. The problem? He only came forward after 2 days of being home. He did admit he was near ground zero at some point during his visit when he landed in Canada, but that was it. He was sent on his merry way....His wife stayed in self isolation, and she was later confirmed to also be infected.
So although it's good that they came forward and self isolated, the man SHOULD have come forward the second he got off the plane and also alerted staff on the plane....or better yet should not have come home! Canada (who ever is in charge of this...) is currently trying to contact the people who were on this flight. But what about the people in the airport, the people he came into contact with on his way home. What did he do in those 1-2 days after coming home?
 

Willowy

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It's hard to get people to voluntarily quarantine themselves when they don't feel horrible.
The problem is, in the US at least, is that it's basically impossible to call in sick to most jobs without suffering negative consequences. And nobody can afford to lose their job even to prevent an epidemic.
It says on one article, and I quote:

The only treatment that can be given is putting the patient on a ventilator and ensuring enough oxygen supply reaches the lungs.
That's IF the person gets pneumonia. It doesn't always lead to pneumonia. And my brother had viral pneumonia when he was little and he didn't have to go on a ventilator so I assume they mean only the severe cases.
or better yet should not have come home!
Just like calling out from work, this can be really hard to do. The hotels will take advantage and charge more, your tourist visa might run out, etc. I'd like to say I wouldn't travel if I thought I was coming down with something, but I can't really guarantee that due to circumstances.

It will probably be necessary in the future to make things more accommodating to containing illnesses.
 
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Maria Bayote

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So basically...the Chinese Government did this. Not sure if it was just a test (and they'll make a deadlier one later), to purposefully infect their people (political unrest and control) or to infect the global population....but,
Funny (or not!) but this actually crossed my mind the moment I heard of this NCV. Conspiracy theories are quite fascinating. If this is true, or somewhere near the truth, then heck, this wouldn’t end so well.
 

MissClouseau

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For the average person outside of China this is far less scary than the flu though. Of course the states should take precautions so the virus won't spread that's another story. But my understanding is both how it's transmitted and the symptoms the noval coronavirus cause are like stronger influenza. Flu also kills thousands of people in the USA alone so it can get very dangerous. But it's a scare we live with every day every year.

No need to panic is what I'm trying to say.
 

Graceful-Lily

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I've heard that it is less deadly than SARS but more contagious.

The misinformation being spread around is ridiculous. I got a chain mail from my dad that he got from some other people stating all kinds of things we know aren't true around the virus. My mom got a message too and she was so scared. I had to explain to her that that is damaging and she should take everything sent to her with a grain of salt.

The man that came back to Toronto with it was admitted to Sunny Brooke Hospital if I remember correctly and I live pretty close to there.
 

Margret

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Flu also kills thousands of people in the USA alone so it can get very dangerous. But it's a scare we live with every day every year.
And, once again, for those of us who are at special risk there are things that we can and do do to prevent the flu, like getting the most effective flu shot available every year. In other words, one of the ways we "live with" this scare is to protect ourselves. But how do we protect ourselves from this virus? It appears that not even wearing a mask in public is protective, as it was with SARS.

My husband does income taxes, and several years ago he had to implement a new policy - No same-day appointments. Why? People would come down with the flu or a bad cold, call in sick to work, take something for the stuffy nose, and then decide, "Hey! I have a free day! Why not get my taxes done?" With the result that Roger would come home incubating the virus, he'd get sick, a day or two later I'd get sick, and then about the time he got over it I'd re-infect him. Roger could lose as much as a month of work, in a seasonal profession, because people don't care who they infect. And that was before Roger became a "special risk" patient!

Margret
 

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My son got back from Vietnam Nam and Thailand ( with a unplanned, quick, side trip across the border into China) at Christmas. He was ill enough that he missed his first flight. He wore a face mask when we saw him Christmas Day. He had viral pneumonia according to his doctor. Makes you wonder.
 

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Why? People would come down with the flu or a bad cold, call in sick to work, take something for the stuffy nose, and then decide, "Hey! I have a free day!
I can't tell you how much I HATE THAT!!!! I work in physical and massage therapy...ei I touch people and come into very close contact with them. I can't even count how many times this happens. They come in and say.."well I'm coming down with something and feel achy so I thought a massage would be nice"...or they don't mention they are sick until well into the treatment, AFTER they coughed on me or sneezed a few times and I ask about it.
I don't get "walk in's" very often because my schedule is usually booked way in advance. But this applies to people who won't cancel their appointment and those who call hoping for an appointment and happen to get in because I had an opening from a cancellation.
Seriously, what is wrong with people! :argh::censored::gaah:
 

Margret

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They come in and say.."well I'm coming down with something and feel achy so I thought a massage would be nice".
There have been a couple of times when I've been extremely sick without realizing it, until I took an NSAID for the aches and it worked almost instantly (in me, that's a dead giveaway that the root problem is a fever). And I'm certain that before I twigged to my illness I exposed other people to it. That was not, of course, by choice, but it still makes me feel bad.

Margret
 
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